Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240521
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

8N13W 7N25W 7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N WITHIN 30 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TO THE 
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SHOW 
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF 
COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED FROM 24N TO 26N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO 
HAVE FORMED FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...IN AN AREA 
WHERE THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN ALONG 31N69W TO 16N71W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL THAT 
EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS 
SHEARING THE TOPS OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE 
SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN
72W AND 74W...IN AN AREA OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASS THROUGH 31N76W TO JUST 
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
26N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST 
COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
23N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 
30W AND 50W. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 27N 
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W...AND FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W
ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W TO 27N50W...FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N45W...THAT IS ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N50W TO 31N60W AND THEN BEYOND
32N64W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 34W...WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

$$
MT