Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 262346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 4N30W 5N52W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 21W-23W...AND 
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 28W-32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF S FLORIDA TO W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N80W 
22N85W 20N86W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 
28N99W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE IS 
PRESENTLY A 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND S 
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-30N W OF 85W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT...THE 
FRONT TO MOVE E AND BE IN THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN 06 HOURS. A GOOD 
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN 
PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.         

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM W CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS ALONG 22N85W 
20N86W 15N87W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 
11N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND NORTH CENTRAL CUBA. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OFF THE COAST 
OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO 
NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED 
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 
25N80W MOVING E. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N W OF 72W 
TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1016 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N62W. A 
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N58W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS FURTHER E FROM 30N52W 22N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 10N49W 11N52W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 13N-17N 
BETWEEN 43W-47W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N27W. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N63W IN 24 HOURS 
WITH CONVECTION.  

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FORMOSA